Developers are hesitant to progress new housing projects amid the upcoming Autumn Budget on 26 November.
Some 64% of developers are not confident about starting new residential developments over the next 12 months, while a further 28% said they were only cautiously confident, according to a poll by lender Octane Capital.
When asked to look ahead to next year, almost half of developers (48%) said they expect the Autumn Budget to restrict development activity in 2026, with only 15% believing it will support the sector.
Jonathan Samuels, chief executive of Octane Capital, said: “If the government truly wants to hit its housing targets, it must focus on measures that support delivery – whether that’s cutting bureaucracy, reducing transaction costs, or widening access to development funding.
“A well-targeted stamp duty reform could provide a near-term boost to buyer demand, helping to restore confidence throughout the housing pipeline.”
Over a quarter (28%) of developers said they were very concerned about the prospect of an annual or land-value tax on high-value property or development land, while a further 35% shared concerns, but said the impact would depend on the thresholds and rates applied.
Some 43% said that potential increases to Capital Gains Tax or new levies on corporate property disposals would cause them to delay sales and slow development turnover, further restricting the pace of delivery.
Nearly a quarter (23%) said they would instead look to accelerate disposals ahead of the implementation, highlighting the disruption such speculation is already causing.
Samuels added: “Confidence among developers has clearly weakened ahead of the Autumn Budget, and it’s easy to see why. Speculation around new taxes, higher capital gains charges, or potential land levies is creating a holding pattern across much of the sector. Developers thrive on certainty, but right now that’s in short supply.
“While planning reform remains the key to unlocking housing delivery, access to flexible and efficient finance is equally important in maintaining momentum during periods of uncertainty. Specialist lenders play a vital role in bridging gaps, refinancing projects, and ensuring viable schemes don’t grind to a halt while developers wait for policy clarity.”
When asked what form of incentive would make the greatest difference in helping the Government meet its 1.5 million new homes target, over half (54%) said the main barrier remains the planning system rather than taxation.